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What Is The Optimal VPIP for No Limit Texas Holdem?

Introduction

Many Poker players around the world have asked what the optimal VPIP is. It is probably one of the most common questions asked on Poker statistics forums, especially when players are starting out with Poker Tracking software such as Poker Office.

In order to identify the optimal VPIP, a way of measuring a player's skill is required. One of the easiest ways in which a player's skill can be estimated is with the BB100 statistic (aka $BB/100 Hands - Big bets won per 100 hands. The Big Bet is usually two times the Big Blind; winnings are displayed in green and losses in red. source : Poker Office Glossary Page).

I therefore performed an analysis to consider how the BB100 statistic varies with VPIP.

Method

A Java application was written to analyse Poker data from PokerFTP.

The mean BB100 for players at each VPIP (rounded to the nearest whole number) was calculated. This data was plotted on a chart.

Two standard deviations were added to and subtracted from the BB100. This data was plotted on the chart too. The purpose of this was to assess the overall consistency of the players at each VPIP level. These shall be referred to as confidence bounds.

Results

_b_100_200_pl9_r_PS_gt1_minhands1000_bb100vpip.jpg
BB100 by VPIP
NL1_2_bb100vpipHandsPlayed.png
Number of Hands Played by VPIP

The data was filtered for hands played at full 9 player $1/$2 No Limit Holdem tables from Pokerstars.

Only hands from players with over 1,000 hands was included. This adds survivorship bias, but the purpose of this analysis is to help people find a long term characteristic to emulate, so it does not matter that shorter term players are excluded.

For VPIPs up to 40, it appears that the mean BB100 is fairly static. There is a bit of a dip at 4%, but the VPIP distribution chart shows that there were very few players here, and so the result is less significant.

As the VPIPs increases to 40, it can be seen that the confidence bounds get wider. This shows that looser players have wilder swings, and makes sense intuitively, as players who see more hands have more opportunities to make or lose more money.

There is a spike in the data at a VPIP of 46. However, it looks like this anomoly is just a blip, as there are few players at this VPIP level. Due to the low number of players, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusions for higher VPIPs.

Conclusion

The VPIP statistic cannot be used to determine whether a player is more likely to be a winner or a loser. The average player has a small negative BB100, but this is to be expected as the house takes a small rake from most pots.

Players with higher VPIPs are more likely to have higher or lower BB100's (i.e. the standard deviation of BB100 by player increases VPIP increases), but we cannot conclude that looser players lose more, or that tighter players win more.

Other factors such as Aggression Factor and Pre Flop Raise may have a noticeable affect on a player's BB100. These statistics will be analysed at a later date.

External Links

What Is The Optimal VPIP For Fixed Limit Texas Holdem? ›