Poker Software and Analysis

Introduction

Stealing blinds from the dealer position is a popular strategy. However, it is often more of an art than a science, and so common that many players will turn the tables on budding blind thieves by re-raising their steal attempts.

This article will show the reader how to identify players who are more vulnerable to blind stealing. The game analysed will be Limit Texas Holdem. Not No Limit.

When applied, historical player data from Poker trackers (such as Poker Office) or online databases will be required. And we shall be assuming that players' historical betting patterns will match their future patterns'. However, this article will focus solely on the mathematics involved, leaving practical applications for another day.

How Often Does The Steal Need to Succeed?

Assume you're on the button. You raise 2BB. There is already 1.5BB in the pot. So you are investing 2BB to make 1.5BB. If we assume that a successful steal is a win, and an unsuccessful steal a loss (which is obviously not the case!) then we need to win (1.5 / 2.0 = ) 57% of the time to make the steal worthwhile.

If we assume that the small and big blinds act independently, then the odds of both of them folding are give by;

Odds Of Steal Success = (Odds of Small Blind Folding) x (Odds of Big Blind Folding).

What if the Blinds Re-Raise?

If the blinds tend to fold more than 57% of the time, then you can safely assume that a re-raise probably represents a monster hand. You can therefore fold, knowing that the attempted steal was a +EV play.

What if the Blinds Call?

Aggressive players will often continuation bet the flop. So the next part of our analysis will analyse the requirements for this.

We shall assume that the callers check the flop. If they bet, then you'll need to consider factors such as their aggression factor, Bet Flop %, the pot odds etc... However, seeing as we'll be targeting weak players (i.e. those who like to fold their blinds), a flop bet will probably represent a strong hand.

On the flop, there will be three possible scenarios:

Only the Small Blind calls

The pot will contain 5.0BB. So a continuation bet would therefore need to win (1 / (1+5.0) = ) 16.7% of the time to be ahead in the long run.

Only the Big Blind calls

The pot will contain 5.0BB. So a continuation bet would therefore need to win (1 / (1+4.5) = ) 18.2% of the time to be ahead in the long run.

Both Blinds Call

Using similar calculations to the above, a continuation bet would need to win 14.3% of the time.

The preceding three percentages are surprisingly small and de monstrate the importance of continuation bets, as they need to work under 20% of the time in order to be worthwhile.

Conclusion

We have shown that in order for blind stealing from the button to be worthwhile, the blinds will need to collectively fold more than 57% of the time. This averages to ( sqrt(57%) = ) 75.5% each.

However, if the blinds do happen to call, continuation bets do not have to work very often in order to save the day.